WHAT WILL LIFE BE LIKE IN THE BAY AREA AFTER COVID19?

We all know that the driving force in the economy of the San Francisco bay area is the high-tech industry. The COVID19 epidemic has made big changes in the way that people in the high-tech industry live and work, and some of those changes will be permanent. Most high-tech workers in this area are now working at home, and many of them will never return to working at an office. Some San Francisco tech giants, including Twitter and Square, have told most of their employees that they can now work from home permanently.

HOUSING. The fact that high-tech company employees are now working at home explains why rents in some bay area cities are falling but not others. The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in San Francisco has fallen 9% since May, 2019. In Mountain View, average rent fell 16% and in Cupertino 14%. However, in Oakland, rents rose 5%, and rents in Berkeley are holding up too. In other words, rent is falling in cities where big tech companies are headquartered. Now that high tech employees are working from home, and many permanently, they can move to nearby cities where the rent is cheaper. The average 1-bedroom apartment in San Francisco currently rents for $3,400 a month. See: Rent Jungle. However, the average 1-bedroom apartment in Oakland is $2,500 a month. A person working at the Salesforce Tower may have been willing to pay $4,000 a month for an apartment nearby for the convenience of being able to walk to work, but what about now? For a recent college graduate in a high tax bracket and with student loans to pay off, being able to save over $1,000 a month on rent by moving to the east bay is a no-brainer. No one knows when this epidemic will be over, and when it is over and tech companies have reopened their offices, how many people who are now working at home will go back to commuting to the office 5 days a week just like before? Some tech people working at home may feel that they can now move far away from the bay area to places where rent is really cheap, places like Lubbock, Texas; where you can rent a modern 1-bedroom apartment that’s walking distance from Texas Tech for $500 a month. Of course, a lot of high-tech people currently working at home will still need to live near Silicon Valley when this is over so that they can attend meetings and conferences. Plus, there are a lot of people who work at home 4 days a week but who have to go to the office 1 day a week. I know people like that. Besides, how many people would really want to move from Palo Alto to Lubbock?

OFFICE SPACE. If working from home becomes the new normal for the high-tech industry, what will happen to companies that rent office buildings in Silicon Valley and downtown San Francisco? What will happen to companies like We Work? And what will happen to the businesses near high-tech company headquarters that depend on income from the people who work there – or used to work there – places like spiffy bars and restaurants in San Francisco’s financial district?

A FEW GOOD PROJECTS.

If you are looking for things to do because you are spending more time at home now because of the virus, here are some good projects.

1. Emergency water. During the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, all the water mains in the city burst. Some people in San Francisco didn’t have potable water for months. What would you do if that happened today? Everyone who lives in earthquake country should have an emergency supply of water. Gallon jugs of water are very cheap. You can also just clean out empty plastic milk and juice jugs and fill them with water. Store water jugs in a basement or bike shed or garage just in case they leak.

2. Dump expired food & meds. What’s in the back of your refrigerator? When was the last time you went through your refrigerator and kitchen cabinets and dumped expired food or food that has gone bad? There are a lot of foods that people never check the expiration dates on because they think they are edible forever, products like ketchup, mustard, hot sauce, etc., but that isn’t true. All food goes bad with time. You should also go through your medicine cabinet and replace expired meds.

3. Clean out your closets. When was the last time you went through your closets and got rid of the stuff that you have no possible use for? I am constantly amazed at the stuff that people store in their closets. I once had a tenant who called me over because the light bulb in his living room closet wasn’t working. I couldn’t get to the light fixture because the closet was full of used paper shopping bags. I told the tenant that I would return to fix the light after he removed the bags from the closet. When I returned, there were piles of shopping bags all over the living room. It turned out that the problem was just a burned-out light bulb. I know several other people like this, people who never throw out shopping bags, no matter how many they already have. Some people will not throw out empty boxes either. I know someone with a basement filled to the ceiling with empty boxes.

4. Start a Goodwill box. Start putting things that you have no use for in a giveaway box so that everything is in one place. Ask yourself if the things in this box are actually salable or just junk. People leave junk at thrift stores at night that should go in their garbage can instead. Thrift stores have no use for cracked dishes, broken appliances, or old mattresses. It is illegal in California for stores to sell used mattresses. On the other hand, thrift stores may actually want your old shopping bags.

WHO LIVES IN BERKELEY’S NEW APARTMENTS?

There is an apartment house under construction on San Pablo Avenue at Jones Street called Jones Berkeley. It’s big. It contains 170 apartments and covers a whole block. They are renting apartments there now. Studio apartments are $3,000 a month. 2 bedroom apartments are $4,800 a month, and 3 bedrooms are $6,700 a month. Jones Berkeley. These rents are typical for the new buildings that are popping up all over town, and there are over 1,000 apartments currently under construction in Berkeley. Now – Jones Berkeley is not in a spiffy neighborhood. Across the street are auto repair shops and vacant stores. It isn’t near campus, it isn’t near a BART station, and unlike San Francisco and Silicon Valley, Berkeley does not have a lot of high paying tech jobs. There are no big tech companies or banks headquartered here. So – where do the people who live in buildings like this get the money from to pay rent like this? I can’t figure it out. Can you?

Where Will The Middle Class Live?

Parker Berkeley is the newest apartment house in town. This place is huge! Parker Berkeley covers a whole block plus part of the block across the street. It is not on a spiffy section of Shattuck Avenue, and it is a long way from campus, but it is walking distance to the Ashby BART station. My guess is that the owners of this building are planning to rent to commuters who work in San Francisco. The rental office is now open and here are the rents:

Studio $2,900.
One bedroom $3,400
Two bedroom $4,500
Three bedroom $6,300
Parking is extra, plus the rent is higher if you have a cat or a dog.

If these rents seem high to you, remember that rents for similar apartments in downtown San Francisco are much higher than this. Like all new apartment houses in Berkeley and San Francisco, Parker Berkeley has inclusionary apartments for the poor, but all the other apartments are rented at market rate. So here is my question. If all the new apartment houses in town only have apartments in them for the rich and the poor, then where will the middle class live? I have been asking that question for 30 years. Consider a schoolteacher who makes $70,000 a year. This teacher doesn’t make enough money to rent a market rate apartment at Parker Berkeley but makes far too much money to qualify for an inclusionary apartment. So where will this schoolteacher live? Certainly not at Parker Berkeley orĀ  any of the new apartment houses going up in Berkeley or San Francisco. America has long been a middle class society, but we are building no housing here for the middle class. None at all. Zero. Zip. What kind of society are we going to live in if we only build housing for the rich and the poor? I never, never hear local politicians talking about this issue, the complete lack of new housing for the working middle class. It never comes up. I wonder why.

Competition With My Free Chocolate Room?

I recently toured Varsity Berkeley Apartments in downtown Berkeley. This is a huge complex. The building runs across an entire block. The building is still under construction, bu they are signing leases now for occupancy in late July. The rent on 2 bedroom apartments ranges from $3,750 to $4,200 a month. Parking is extra. They are advertising these apartments as rentals for college students, hence the name ‘Varsity Berkeley’, but I wonder – how many college students can really afford to pay $4,000 a month for a 2 bedroom apartment?

What is a ‘luxury apartment’? The sales brochure says that you will ‘live in luxury’ at Varsity Berkeley. It seems like every new apartment house in Berkeley uses the word ‘luxury’ to describe their apartments, but what exactly does that mean? ‘Luxury apartment’ could mean almost anything and based on my observations, it usually just means ‘expensive.’ If there is a legal definition of the word ‘luxury’, I would like to know what it is. To be fair, Varsity Berkeley has some very nice amenities, including a spacious rooftop garden. They will also have valet garbage collection. That means they will pick up your garbage at your apartment. You won’t have to carry your garbage to a garbage can or a garbage chute. That is not a service that I provide. I do not pick up my tenants’ garbage and put it in their garbage cans for them.

varsityapartmentsVarsity Berkeley has some interesting swag at their rental office. They have free bags of gumballs with the name ‘Varsity Berkeley’ printed on the bag, but I wonder if that is enough to get people to sign leases. I always keep my eye on Berkeley landlords who give free candy to their tenants; however, I am not convinced that bags of gumballs are real competition with my free chocolate room. You know, you can buy a lot of gumballs for $4,000 a month!